チョコミミブログ
チョコの知恵袋（降水確率）
2009年06月08日
チョコ：梅雨入りが近いせいか、スッキリしない天気が続くね。
ミ ミ：わたしは、天気予報の「降水確率」で判断するんだけど、ハズレた！と思うことも多いわ。
チョコ：それは、「降水確率」を誤解してるんじゃないの？
ミ ミ：そういえば、必ず、「1ミリ以上の雨の降る確率=降水確率」と言うけど、どういうこと？
チョコ：1ミリ未満の雨、つまり、地面がかすかに湿る（しめる）程度の雨量は、「降水確率」には含めないという意味なんだ。
ミ ミ：えっ、そうなの？
チョコ：うん。それと、「降水確率」は、雨の強さや、雨の長さとは、関係ないんだ。
ミ ミ：降水確率１００パーセントなら、一日中、強い雨が続くと思ってたけど…。
チョコ：降水確率３０パーセントの方がザーザー降りで、降水確率７０パーセントの方が1～2ミリでやんでしまうこともあるんだ。
ミ ミ：なるほど。
チョコ：「降水確率」は、過去の気象データをもとに、確率を計算するんだ。例えば、正午から午後６時までの「降水確率」を出す時には、その時間帯に予想される気象条件とよく似た過去の気象実績を振り返り、１００回中何回雨が降ったかをカウントするんだ。
ミ ミ：むずかしそう…。
チョコ：計算の結果、「降水確率３０パーセントの日が３日続く。」と発表し、３日間すべてに雨が降った場合、天気予報はハズレた！と思う人もいるらしい。
ミ ミ：どうして？
チョコ：「確率５割以下なのに、雨が降った。しかも、３日も続くなんて！」でも、気象予報士から見れば、「予報的中」なんだよ。
ミ ミ：気象予報士さんも、いろいろ大変なのね。
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